Summit County Build-Out Looms
KIM MARQUIS, Summit Daily News
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Apr 22, 2004
SUMMIT COUNTY - A buildout analysis by Summit County's planning department projects that, based on the current growth rate, the county will reach residential buildout by 2013, or in less than 10 years.
Buildout is achieved when all of the land zoned for it has been developed.
Summit County, including unincorporated areas and the four towns, is currently 68.7 percent buildout for residential development, the analysis found. Land zoned for commercial development is 60.7 percent built-out.
Considering that 25 percent of the county's residential building capacity was absorbed in the 10 years prior to 2002, planners concluded that development would consume another 25 percent by the year 2011 and reach buildout by 2013.
Projections were compiled by county planners John Roberts and Mark Truckey during the department's effort to update county master plans.
Considering what would happen in a decade or so when Summit County reaches buildout, Roberts points to Aspen, where the development process is quite different than here.
"When that community reached buildout, real estate values went through the roof," he said. "You have to begin to consider what that does to surrounding counties, what it does to the types and kinds of development seen and you start to see infill and redevelopment."
Dave Petersen, managing broker at the RE/MAX office in Frisco, said the local real estate market might experience the same events as Aspen once reaching buildout, especially in redevelopment.
"Older homes will be torn down and replaced with new homes," Petersen said. "Property values here have already been going up all through the 1990s, and redevelopment is happening already where the value of the land exceeds the value of the structure."
As an example, Petersen said the old Smithwick's barbecue and Rebel Sports buildings on Fourth and Main in Frisco were torn down and replaced with new construction that maximized the site. Wilderness Sports and Coldwell Banker Rockies Real Estate are located in the new building.
To attain buildout projections, the planning department analyzed existing zoning on every parcel of private land in unincorporated Summit County and determined the maximum potential development allowed by that zoning.
Planners then subtracted the number of existing units to determine what remains to be built. Buildout numbers supplied by the towns were added to this analysis to come up with countywide buildout projections.
Frisco and the Ten Mile Basin, which includes Copper Mountain, is reaching capacity at the fastest rate with 79.2 percent of land already developed.
Next highest is Dillon, Keystone and the surrounding property in the Snake River Basin at 70.2 percent buildout.
Breckenridge and the Upper Blue basin, which includes Blue River, is 64.1 percent built out and Silverthorne and the Lower Blue basin's unincorporated property is 64.1 percent developed, according to the county's figures.
It is clear that if the pace slows due to unforeseen factors, the time frame to ultimate buildout will be prolonged.
However, planners project that even under a slower growth scenario, the county is likely to reach buildout within the next 20 years.
Roberts said several factors may change the projections. For one, private property owners may elect to not develop their property, thereby shrinking the development pool and decreasing the time to reach buildout.
These property owners could choose to place land under conservation easements, which would prevent development into the future. Other land could be preserved through open space purchases.
However, some factors may extend the time frame for ultimate buildout in the county, Roberts said.
Unforeseen annexations, such as the recent one in Silverthorne for a new grocery store, would allow up-zonings, or more development than is currently allowed.
Land trades with the U.S. Forest Service, such as the one garnered at the County Commons for a new hospital and medical campus, adds to the development pool, also called density, and therefore would extend the time frame for buildout.
Other actions could increase density, such as a recent proposal by Intrawest to build 1,200 units in Copper's village that are not currently zoned for development.
The ski company has offered about $600,000 in "public benefits" for the increased density, as well as trails, open space and green easements. The proposal is still under consideration by the Summit Board of County Commissioners.
The transfer of development rights, or TDR program, also could affect buildout projections but rather than add or subtract density, the program is a kind of zoning game, in which density is transferred from backcountry parcels and added to in-town properties.
As a county planner, Roberts expects to see more complicated development proposals and the use of intricate programs like TDRs as Summit reaches buildout. Proposals will be scrutinized more closely, he said.
"Square footage becomes more of a premium," Roberts said. "Planners in Vail are now arguing about each foot in development proposals. Things become much more complex when a community reaches buildout."
Kim Marquis can be reached at 668-3998, ext. 249 or kmarquis@summitdaily.com
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